Iran has suffered a terrible blow with the fast fall of Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian regime. This is the most recent in a series of setbacks that have shaken Western perceptions of Tehran’s military might.
Iran has demonstrated in recent months that it is unable to defend itself against damaging Israeli airstrikes, stop Israeli covert operations that target important figures in the regime, or safeguard an ally next door that was a crucial component of its regional proxy network, known as the axis of resistance.
Syria has been an essential land bridge for Iran’s Hezbollah force in Lebanon for many years, enabling Tehran to transport weaponry to its allies on the other side of the Syrian border. Russia supported Damascus with air power following the 2011 revolt against Assad, while Iran supported the despotic leader with cash, weapons, Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders, and militants from Iranian-backed proxy forces in Lebanon, Iraq, and other places.
However, according to current and former U.S. officials, Iran was caught off guard at a challenging time when Syrian rebel forces overran Aleppo last month against ill-trained and demoralized Syrian army troops. Iran’s military was exhausted from Israeli airstrikes, and its proxy forces in Lebanon were destroyed from fighting Israel. There was no coordinated attempt to halt the advance using Iranian-backed proxy forces or Russian bombers as the rebels pushed forward.
A top Biden administration official told reporters on Sunday that the events of the past weekend represented a fundamental shift in the Middle East’s balance. According to the person, Assad was essentially left behind since his only allies—Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia—were no longer able to provide assistance.
According to former U.S. intelligence officials and academics, Iran’s weaker stance has called into question long-held beliefs in Washington and other capitals about Iran’s strength and tenacity as well as predictions about the course of a direct conflict between Israel and Iran.
According to a former U.S. official, you have a number of myths that have vanished in the past year.
The United States and other nations have been concerned that if Israel attacked Iran, Iran’s proxies would launch a massive counteroffensive against Israel. Many people also believed that Iran’s enormous missile stockpile would prevent Israel from ever attacking directly and that, should it do so, Tehran might overwhelm Israeli air defenses in response.
Furthermore, there were concerns that a direct conflict between Israel and Iran might spark a protracted conflict that would attract the attention of the US and other nations.
None of those things happened.
Iran’s proxies in Yemen, Iraq, Gaza, and Lebanon did not respond catastrophically to Israeli airstrikes against Iran. According to former officials, it was unclear if Tehran’s leadership was unwilling to take against Israel head-on or if those proxy forces lacked the resources and motivation to strike more forcefully.
Israel successfully shot down the majority of Iran’s ballistic missiles and drones with vital assistance from the United States and its allies. Israel’s military and intelligence operations have killed a large number of Hezbollah’s commanders and broken into its communications, proving to be an insurmountable threat to the Iranian-trained and armed Lebanese group.
According to Norman Roule, a former senior U.S. intelligence official and senior consultant to United Against Nuclear Iran, a nonprofit organization dedicated to countering Iran’s threats, the false presumptions about Iran influenced and in fact limited regional and U.S. policy on Iran.
According to current and former U.S. officials, Iran’s proxy network, which Tehran saw as a protective wall shielding Iran and a means of combating nations with more potent conventional militaries, has probably suffered irreversible harm as a result of losing Syria as a trustworthy and obedient friend.
According to Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute, a research organization based in Washington, the demise of Assad raises serious concerns about the viability of the axis of resistance. According to him, Iran has spent billions of dollars over the past 20 years to develop this forward defense model, and it has long produced results.
However, the model and Iran’s Arab allies have shown themselves incapable of withstanding pressure,” Vatanka continued. “It began with Hezbollah and now Assad.”
Shortly before the Assad administration fell, former Iranian vice president Mohammad Ali Abtahi declared on social media that the overthrow of the regime will be one of the most important developments in Middle Eastern history. Abtahi went on to say that the region’s resistance will be left without assistance. Israel would emerge as the main power.
According to Roule, recent events have revealed a decay within Iran’s military and security infrastructure, notably the inability to repel anti-regime rebel troops in Syria over the last two weeks.
Referring to Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force, who was killed by a U.S. drone strike in Baghdad in January 2020, Roule stated that Iran had experienced a string of setbacks and defeats that revealed flaws and shortcomings in Iran’s intelligence and security services.
He claimed that by killing numerous seasoned Hezbollah and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officials active in Syria over the past year, Israel had exacerbated this decay.
These officials had decades of expertise in Syria and had connections with Iraqis, Afghans, Pakistanis, Yemenis, and other extremists in Iran’s proxy network.
Roule claimed that Iran’s bureaucratic efficiency and coherence weakened when those officers and their rolodex disappeared.
According to Roule and other analysts, Iran’s intelligence services don’t seem to be able to disrupt enemy covert activities or provide its leaders with advance notice of direct threats.
It was unclear why leaders of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is in charge of the proxy network and has collaborated closely with the Syrian army, did not move swiftly to save the forces of the Assad regime. Iran has declined to send large numbers of its own fighters to support its allies in Syria and Lebanon in recent months.
According to Roule, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, Iran’s supreme leader, has long prohibited Iranian military from putting themselves in danger to defend proxies.
The reputation Iran built up for its Quds Force as a top-tier military force capable of defeating its enemies and defending Shiite communities overseas has been damaged by the loss of Syria.
Iran may now reconsider its support for the Oct. 7 attack on Israel by Hamas militants in Gaza, which Tehran praised at the time. According to Marc Polymeropoulos, a former CIA officer with Middle East experience, the attack, which was planned by the late Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, took Israel by surprise but started a series of events that have weakened Iran on several fronts and led to the fall of the Assad regime.
Yahya Sinwar initiated this on October 7 and is credited with bringing down the Iranian axis of resistance, according to Polymeropoulos.
Iran would probably try to reassemble its proxy forces, perhaps using Yemen as a base or taking advantage of any upheaval in Syria following Assad’s departure, despite the short-term setback.
Sen. Andy Kim, D-N.J., a former U.S. diplomat, said that in order to prevent Tehran from reestablishing its militant network, the United States and its Arab allies must stop Iran from sending weapons and trainers to Lebanon.
Since Iran was delivering weapons to Hezbollah both on the ground and through airspace over Iraq and Syria, I believe it is in our national security interest to cut off their capabilities in Syria, Kim told MSNBC. And if we can cut this off now, it may be a devastating blow rather than just a setback.
Iran must decide how to handle its nuclear program and how to deal with the incoming U.S. administration under President-elect Donald Trump, who placed harsh economic sanctions on Tehran during his first term, now that its air defenses, missile arsenal, and regional standing have been harmed. These sanctions have not been lifted, and Iran has refused to fully cooperate with U.N. inspectors over its nuclear program while enriching uranium to levels that are nearly weapons-grade.
However, Iran has so far chosen not to develop nuclear weapons and, as it attempts to reorganize, may seek a diplomatic agreement with the US and other nations, according to experts.
According to Vatanka, Iran will reconsider its plans to develop weapons, keep the nuclear card as a negotiating chip, and try to reach an agreement with its international adversaries for the time being.
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