Welcome to the online edition of From the Politics Desk, an evening email that provides you with the most recent coverage and commentary from the campaign trail, Capitol Hill, and the White House by the NBC News Politics team.
Steve Kornacki, the national political correspondent, explains how New Jersey might serve as an early litmus test for Donald Trump’s coalition in today’s program. Additionally, senators from both parties are not convinced by Trump’s recent plea for a solution on Dreamers, according to senior national political writer Sahil Kapur.
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A blue state could provide an early test for the Trump coalition
By Steve Kornacki
New Jersey, one of the bluest states in the nation, saw one of Donald Trump’s largest victories this year. After losing to Joe Biden by 16 points in 2020, the next president defeated Harris by 6 points in the Garden State, a double-digit improvement.
Significant gains with Hispanic voters were crucial to Trump’s increased support; this was a nationwide trend that was particularly noticeable in New Jersey, where somewhat more than one in five citizens are Hispanic. Along with strengthening his already strong position in Orthodox Jewish communities, he also made significant progress with Asian American voters and, in certain sections of the state, with Muslim and Arab American voters. These trends are consistent across the nation.
Whether Republicans can sustain and expand this new demographic alliance without Trump himself on the ballot is a key question that comes out of the 2024 election. This sets up the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial election as a possible preliminary test.
Some of the changes that have occurred in New Jersey this year are so significant. The margin shifted at least 20 points in Trump’s favor from 2020 in each of the six large cities or towns where Hispanics make up over 70% of the population. And compared to 2016, it’s much more extreme.
Newark, the state’s largest metropolis, is now somewhat less of a Democratic vote bank due to the rise in Hispanic support for Trump. Hispanics now make up over 40% of Newark’s population, whereas Black people make up nearly half of the city’s 305,000 inhabitants. Although Kamala Harris defeated Trump by 58 points this year, it was still a huge improvement over the 85-point defeat he sustained in his first run in 2016.
The community of Palisades Park, North Jersey, which has one of the largest concentrations of Korean Americans in the nation, is experiencing a similar situation. Trump lost by only 5 points in November in Palisades Park, which is 63% Asian American, as opposed to 22 points in 2020 and 32 points in 2016.
One of the biggest Orthodox Jewish communities outside of Israel is found in Lakewood. The township s population has more than doubled, from 60,000 in 2000 to nearly 140,000 in last year s census estimate, with no slowdown in sight. Trump has elevated it to a new level and it is now a significant source of GOP support throughout the state. In 2016, Trump won Lakewood by a margin of 50 points. He increased that figure to 75 points in November of this year.
Democrats in New Jersey’s 2025 gubernatorial contest will undoubtedly be hoping that Trump’s demographic gains are unique to him. Additionally, they have at least some cause for hope: In the state s race for an open U.S. Senate this year, Democrat Andy Kim overperformed Harris in all of these places. In Passaic, for example, he defeated his Republican opponent by 6 points a net 13-point improvement over Harris.
But Republicans can also take heart that, even as Kim ran ahead of Harris, his support level in these communities still tended to be significantly lower than how Democrats fared pre-Trump.
It will make all of these places worth keeping a close eye on as the governor s race unfolds.
Senators are skeptical of Trump s call for a bipartisan deal on Dreamers
By Sahil Kapur
When President-elect Donald Trump told NBC News Meet the Press that he sinterested in cutting a dealwith Democrats to protect Dreamers brought to the U.S. at a young age, some senators felt a tinge of d j vu.
We have to do something about the Dreamers because these are people that have been brought here at a very young age. And many of these are middle-aged people now. They don t even speak the language of their country, Trump told moderator Kristen Welker. I will work with the Democrats on a plan.
When asked about Trump s remarks, leading Senate Republicans didn t close the door to a deal but they did sound a note of skepticism about the prospects.
We ll see. The sweet spot on immigration reform has eluded us a number of times. But obviously if there is a bipartisan willingness to take on that issue, then I m certainly open to what we can do, said incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D. It d be better long term if we could come up with some legislative solutions, but in the last few administrations, everything s been done by executive action. So it s going to take something to break that logjam.
Trump used similar rhetoric during his first term, but his actions told a different story. As president in 2017, hesought to end the DACA programthat protected undocumented immigrants who arrived in the U.S. as children from deportation. And in 2018, when Sens. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., and Angus King, I-Maine, cut a bipartisan deal to give Dreamers legal status while giving Trumpmoney for his border wall, Trump s White House successfullyfought to killthe deal because it didn t also curtail family-based immigration.
Senate Judiciary Chair Dick Durbin, D-Ill., who sponsored the original Dream Act in 2001, said he was listening closely to Trump s comments on the matter Sunday and welcomed talks.
My ears perked up. After 23 years, I m ready, he said. Anytime, anywhere let s sit down.
But there s reason to be skeptical, if not cynical, Durbin added.
Read more
More MTP interview reaction:Rep. Bennie Thompson, D-Miss., who chaired the now-defunct House Jan. 6 committee, pushed back against Trump s suggestion during his Meet the Press interview that the panel s former members should be imprisoned.Read more
Today s top stories
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McConnell update:
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, 82, is recovering from minor injuries after falling following Senate Republicans’ weekly lunch on Tuesday, his office said.Read more
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At the plate:
Trump is going to bat for Tulsi Gabbard, his pick to be the country s top intelligence official, who is facing scrutiny as she meets with senators this week.Read more
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Hit the ground running:
While Trump is looking to fill many key administration posts with outsiders, his selection for acting head of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Caleb Vitello, has decades of experience with the agency.Read more
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House call:
Democratic senators want answers from Mehmet Oz on his “previous advocacy for Medicare privatization as he seeks to lead the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.Read more
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Final report:
The bipartisan House task force investigating the assassination attempts against Trump is out with its final report, including dozens of recommendations.Read more
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That s classified:
In his first term, Trump s Justice Department secretly obtained phone and text message logs of 43 congressional staffers and two members of Congress during an investigation into leaks.Read more
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Won t back down:
New York Attorney General Letitia James has rejected Trump’s request to walk away from her office’s $486 million civil fraud judgment against him.Read more
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Youth movement:
A growing band of younger, more energetic House Democrats is challenging seasoned veterans for powerful congressional posts, upending the party s long-standing practice of deference to seniority.Read more
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Hey neighbor:
Trump posted a social media message mocking Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as the governor of the Great State of Canada.Read more
That s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback likes or dislikes email us [email protected]
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