Denver, CO – With just over a month to go before the winter solstice, meteorologists are releasing their final interpretations of what the 2025–26 winter season could look like across the United States. Long-range forecasts are famously uncertain, as noted earlier this year by experts at OpenSnow, who reminded skiers and travelers that accuracy drops quickly when outlooks stretch months into the future. Still, weather enthusiasts continue to analyse them for early hints about what the season may bring.
Temperature trends across the country
YouTube weather analyst Direct Weather recently published a detailed winter outlook covering temperature anomalies, precipitation patterns, and snowfall expectations. While broad in scope, the forecast offers a general sense of how winter may unfold.
According to the report, California and large portions of southern Oregon are expected to experience a warmer-than-average winter. That warm signal appears even stronger further south, affecting regions such as southern Utah and New Mexico, where above-normal temperatures are considered likely.
In contrast, a large stretch of the U.S. extending from the upper corner of Washington state down into parts of Texas may fall into cooler-than-average territory. The confidence in these below-average temperatures grows progressively stronger east of the Rocky Mountains. States north of the Gulf Coast and much of the Midwest show the highest likelihood for colder conditions, including the interior Northeast, which already experiences harsh winter climates.
How La Niña may shape precipitation
Direct Weather’s forecast leans heavily on the expected arrival of a weak La Niña, aligning with many other long-range models. Typically, La Niña patterns steer storms toward the Pacific Northwest before they sweep into the Rockies, leaving California and portions of the Southwest drier.
However, because this La Niña is projected to be weak, the signal is less predictable. This opens the possibility for stronger storm activity to still reach the Southwest, bringing the chance of significant snowfall if conditions align. The northern half of the U.S., particularly the Northeast, stands to benefit from lingering storm systems pushed along by La Niña-style circulation. In addition, storms tracking from Alberta could bring noteworthy snowfall to sections of the Midwest.
Snowfall expectations for the 2025–26 season
Snowfall projections generally mirror the broader precipitation patterns. California and the Southwest currently show lower chances of above-average snowfall, tied directly to the weaker La Niña influence.
Higher snowfall potential begins near the Oregon–California border, extending northward through Washington, where confidence increases substantially. That same elevated confidence continues as the forecast expands east and north into the interior regions of the country.
Early season conditions hint at the divide
If current conditions are any indication, the West Coast is already under pressure. Areas of Washington, Oregon, and California are showing limited early-season snowfall, raising concern as opening dates for many ski resorts draw near. Meanwhile, the Northeast has been off to an impressive start, receiving multiple early storms that allowed several resorts to open ahead of schedule.
These developing patterns align loosely with long-range expectations, though many in the West are hoping for storms to begin shifting into the region—especially if the predicted above-average precipitation anomalies eventually take hold.
Long-range forecasts are best viewed as broad guidance rather than precise predictions. With winter still weeks away, conditions can evolve rapidly. For now, the nation appears split between warmer-leaning temperatures in the Southwest and colder, storm-favoured conditions across the North, Midwest, and Northeast.
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