Billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio has expressed deep concerns that President Donald Trump’s global tariffs could trigger something more severe than a recession.
In an appearance on NBC News’ Meet the Press, the Bridgewater Associates founder, who famously predicted the 2008 financial crisis, warned that the tariffs risk destabilizing the global economy and could potentially lead to armed conflict.
“We’re at a critical decision point and dangerously close to a recession,” Dalio said. “But I’m more concerned about the possibility of something even worse if this situation isn’t managed properly.”
Dalio noted that the global economic structure appears to be shifting, replacing a period of generational stability with potential upheaval.
“We’re moving from multilateralism—essentially an American-led world order—toward unilateralism, which brings greater conflict,” he explained.
When asked to elaborate on the potential consequences, Dalio didn’t hold back. He warned that such conflict could destabilize the value of money, provoke internal unrest beyond typical democratic norms, and ignite international tensions—possibly even military conflict. “These kinds of breakdowns have happened before,” he cautioned.
Dalio emphasized that the post–World War II system of global cooperation could be on the verge of collapse.
He outlined five major forces that historically shape global outcomes: the money-credit-debt economic cycle, internal conflict driven by inequality and differing values, shifts in global power structures, acts of nature, and technological change.
He highlighted how these forces are currently out of sync, pointing particularly to the economic and political disruptions caused by Trump’s tariffs.
“The tariffs have already been very disruptive,” Dalio said, suggesting that more insight will come after the end of Trump’s 90-day tariff freeze.
Dalio concluded by warning that the global order established in 1945—including monetary and geopolitical systems—operates in measurable cycles, and that we may be nearing a critical breakdown.
However, he added that such a collapse isn’t inevitable. “These goals could be accomplished in a more orderly and cooperative way,” he said.
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